Reform UK eyes 1 key group of voters who could clinch election win

In its latest push to woo Middle England and the last straggling Tory voters, Reform UK will start the week with a pitch to small business. Nigel Farage will launch a new group to advise Reform on its small business policies and lobby for that sector. This comes off the back of a flurry of press conferences last week where Reform made the case for reforming welfare, deregulation before tax cuts, and changes to public sector pensions.

Although the polls still have Reform at the top - latest surveys by Opinium and Find Out Now have Reform 13 and 15 points ahead of Labour respectively - Farage would like to be hovering nearer 40% than 30% to feel comfortable of an overall Commons majority. As the recent Senedd by-election showed, Reform could easily fall victim to tactical voting, something which becomes a bigger issue if its lead stays where it is right now.

This explains the latest push on economic policy. Just as important perhaps is the announced donation by JCB boss Lord Bamford, previously a donor to the Tories.

That will be a kick in the teeth to Tory leader Kemi Badenoch as she fights for her political life in the run-up to what are expected to be horrendous local elections in May.

Reform is now trusted on almost every major issue over the other parties. Clearly though, support is highest on immigration. But Reform won't want to be seen as a one-trick pony however big that trick is.

Given the train wreck of the last Tory government and the current Labour one, Reform still has something of an open goal, and without a lousy track record to defend.

I wouldn't be too worried about Labour copying Denmark's strict immigration policy either. More chances of pigs being airborne than this government getting a handle on small boats and deporting foreign crooks.

Still, Reform is right to widen its remit beyond this big issue. If Farage is to convince Middle Britain he is the man to be trusted with the nation's pocketbook, his party must present an ambitious but nevertheless measured and clear roadmap on the economy.