Monsoon likely to reach Kerala in 4-5 days: IMD

New Delhi | The southwest monsoon is likely to reach Kerala in the next four-five days, much earlier than the usual date of June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

The weather department had earlier forecast that the monsoon would onset over Kerala by May 27.

If the monsoon arrives in Kerala as expected, it will be the earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it began on May 23, according to IMD data.

"Conditions are likely to become favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala during next 4-5 days," the IMD said in an update on Tuesday afternoon.

Normally, the southwest monsoon makes its onset over Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15.

The monsoon had set in over the southern state on May 30 last year; June 8 in 2023; May 29 in 2022; June 3 in 2021; June 1 in 2020; June 8 in 2019; and May 29 in 2018.

The IMD had in April forecast above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2025 monsoon season, ruling out the possibility of El Niño conditions, which are associated with below-normal rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.

According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm is considered 'normal'.

Rainfall less than 90 per cent of the long-period average is considered 'deficient'; between 90 per cent and 95 per cent is 'below normal'; between 105 per cent and 110 per cent is 'above normal'; and more than 110 per cent is considered 'excess' precipitation.

The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of about 42.3 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the country's GDP. It is also vital for replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water and power generation across the country.