Gold has been on an extraordinary run over the past year, delivering gains that have left many investors thrilled, but some, cautious. Amid this bullion spike backdrop, Sridhar Vembu, Chief Scientist and Founder of Zoho, issued a note of caution on Saturday, calling the yellow metal “insurance against systemic financial risk” rather than a conventional investment.
The industrialist's note lands right in the middle of this market euphoria, creating a paradox. His caution is especially pointed coming on Dhanteras, the one day of the year when buying the yellow metal is seen as an auspicious duty—not a risky bet.
“I don’t think of gold as an investment; I think of it as insurance against systemic financial risk,” he wrote in a post on X, noting that with debt levels soaring globally, the underlying trust in financial systems could be at risk, making gold a safe haven in uncertain times.
Vembu further stressed that finance ultimately relies on trust, and when debt levels climb as high as they have globally, that trust is vulnerable.
Domestic gold prices have surged by an astonishing 63% over the past 12 months, one of the strongest yearly performances in recent memory. From around Rs 78,840 per 10 grams during Dhanteras last year, prices now hover near Rs 1,28,200, vastly outperforming benchmark indices such as the Nifty 50.
To put that in perspective, the 63% jump means that for every Rs 100,000 invested in gold on Dhanteras last year, an investor would have a profit of Rs 63,000 today, a performance that essentially doubled the return of the Nifty 50 over the same period
Analysts confirm the price is being driven by a cocktail of fear and policy: Geopolitical tensions, fuelled by ongoing global conflicts and trade wars, are intensifying the flight to safety; this movement is amplified by aggressive, strategic accumulation from central banks worldwide seeking to diversify away from the US Dollar.
In a crux, the world's worries are arguably gold's biggest catalyst.
Meanwhile, beneath these macro trends, the domestic market is supported by sustained, high demand tied to the traditional festive season.
While high valuations have altered buying patterns somewhat, the metal continues to retain its appeal both as jewelry and as a hedge against financial uncertainty.
Given this setup, experts like Ventura Securities forecast strong near-term movement, with the next rally potentially aiming for Rs 1,50,000$ per 10 grams in 2026. The question for every investor is no longer just how high gold will go, but what the metal truly represents in their portfolio.
The industrialist's note lands right in the middle of this market euphoria, creating a paradox. His caution is especially pointed coming on Dhanteras, the one day of the year when buying the yellow metal is seen as an auspicious duty—not a risky bet.
“I don’t think of gold as an investment; I think of it as insurance against systemic financial risk,” he wrote in a post on X, noting that with debt levels soaring globally, the underlying trust in financial systems could be at risk, making gold a safe haven in uncertain times.
Vembu further stressed that finance ultimately relies on trust, and when debt levels climb as high as they have globally, that trust is vulnerable.
I agree with Dr Gita Gopinath.
— Sridhar Vembu (@svembu) October 18, 2025
The US stock market is in a clear and massive bubble.
The degree of leverage in the system means that we cannot rule out a systemic event like the global financial crisis of 2008-9.
Gold is also flashing a big warning signal. I don't think of… https://t.co/7xVPL3FXDq
Domestic gold prices have surged by an astonishing 63% over the past 12 months, one of the strongest yearly performances in recent memory. From around Rs 78,840 per 10 grams during Dhanteras last year, prices now hover near Rs 1,28,200, vastly outperforming benchmark indices such as the Nifty 50.
To put that in perspective, the 63% jump means that for every Rs 100,000 invested in gold on Dhanteras last year, an investor would have a profit of Rs 63,000 today, a performance that essentially doubled the return of the Nifty 50 over the same period
Analysts confirm the price is being driven by a cocktail of fear and policy: Geopolitical tensions, fuelled by ongoing global conflicts and trade wars, are intensifying the flight to safety; this movement is amplified by aggressive, strategic accumulation from central banks worldwide seeking to diversify away from the US Dollar.
In a crux, the world's worries are arguably gold's biggest catalyst.
Meanwhile, beneath these macro trends, the domestic market is supported by sustained, high demand tied to the traditional festive season.
While high valuations have altered buying patterns somewhat, the metal continues to retain its appeal both as jewelry and as a hedge against financial uncertainty.
Given this setup, experts like Ventura Securities forecast strong near-term movement, with the next rally potentially aiming for Rs 1,50,000$ per 10 grams in 2026. The question for every investor is no longer just how high gold will go, but what the metal truly represents in their portfolio.
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